Modeling and Analysis of the Spread of an Infectious Disease Cholera with Environmental Fluctuations
نویسندگان
چکیده
A nonlinear delayed mathematical model with immigration for the spread of an infectious disease cholera with carriers in the environment is proposed and analyzed. It is assumed that all susceptible are affected by carrier population density. The carrier population density is assumed to follow the logistic model and grows due to conducive human population density related factors. The model is analyzed by stability theory of differential equations and computer simulation. Both the disease-free (DFE), (CFE) and endemic equilibria are found and their stability investigated. Bifurcation analyses about endemic equilibrium are also carried out analytically using the theory of differential equations. The model study shows that the spread of the infectious disease cholera increases due to growth of carriers in the environment and disease becomes more endemic due to immigration. Numerical simulations are also carried out to investigate the influence of certain parameters on the spread of disease, to support the analytical results of the model.
منابع مشابه
Cholera, Migration, and Global Health – A Critical Review
Cholera is an acute diarrheal infection caused by the ingestion of food or water contaminated with the bacterium Vibrio cholerae. The causative agent of this disease was originally described by Filippo Pacini in 1854, and afterwards further analyzed by Robert Koch in 1884. It is estimated that each year there are 1.3 million to 4 million cases of cholera, and 21 000 to 143 000 deaths worldwide ...
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